中国疫情死亡人数或超官方数字百倍

2022.01.17 07:15 cloctor 中国疫情死亡人数或超官方数字百倍

中国疫情死亡人数或超官方数字百倍
西安防疫人员喷火消毒。(翻摄自推特@bci_)
(英文大纪元记者Eva Fu和David Zhang报导/温芳编译)一位美国专家说,在一场系统的数据压制运动中,中共政权很可能将COVID-19的死亡率总体上低估了17,000%,以维持其政治形象。
这位专家推算,中国的COVID-19死亡人数最高可能达到170万左右,而不是中共当局记录在案的两年累计死亡人数4636人。这是官方数字的366倍。
美国史蒂文斯理工学院(Stevens Institute of Technology)量化金融计划(quantitative finance program)负责人乔治‧卡尔霍恩(George Calhoun)的这些发现是根据经济《经济学人》(The Economist)杂志的数据模型得出的。
自从2020年4月1日以来,中共政府只报导新增2例死亡。由此,负责监管疫情的中国流行病学专家钟南山上周说,中国是全世界COVID-19疫情死亡率最低的国家。
这个死亡率比美国低了几百倍,引起了卡尔霍恩的注意。他告诉新唐人记者:“这不可能。从医学上、统计学上来看都不可能。”
“要记得,2020年的时候,还没有疫苗,也没有治疗办法。”卡尔霍恩说,“这么大一个社会群体没有任何保护措施,在有数万例感染的情况下,居然没有一例死亡。”
在整理大量公共数据、以前的研究报告,并分析中共政府过去各类瞒报事实的丑闻后,卡尔霍恩得出在他看来很明显的结论:中共政府为了实现“清零”的政治目标,系统性地造假数据来支持他们的说法。
卡尔霍恩说:“2020年第一季度后有人放出一条消息,‘好吧,我们想看到COVID清零。这是我们的政策。’然后,COVID就清零了。”
异常的数字
卡尔霍恩说,中共造假数字的第一个确凿证据是,在2020年初中国出现感染率激增后,从4月1日起死亡人数突然下降。
根据约翰‧霍普金斯冠状病毒资源中心(Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center)提供的数据,从2020年4月1日到2022年1月8日间,中国共新增22,102感染者,只有2例死亡。相比之下,同期香港新增感染人数是中国感染人数的一半,死亡213例。
在疫情爆发的最初三个月里,武汉的染疫死亡率(染疫者中死亡的比例)大约是7.7%,是美国死亡率的五倍多,是全球平均比率的四倍多。
卡尔霍恩说这只有两种可能:不是“2020年初在武汉的病毒比任何时期在世界其它地方的毒性大得多”,就是实际染疫人数是中共报导数字的三四倍。
在过去20个月里,中共频繁缺报数字。中国是世界上唯一一个不提供“超额死亡”(excess mortality)人数的国家。“超额死亡”即比正常死亡人数超出的部分,是粗略估算新冠死亡人数的一个较为全面客观的指标。
《经济学人》(The Economist)的数据模型力求弥补这一数据空缺。引用这一模型的数据,卡尔霍恩说,中国的“超额死亡”人数是官方统计疫情死亡人数的17,000%(170倍)。这样的偏差甚至超过了像利比亚、伊拉克、阿富汗和委内瑞拉这些国内形势急剧动荡的国家。这四个国家中,最高的是委内瑞拉,该国的超额死亡人数是官方报告人数的1,100%(11倍)。
低估疫情死亡人数少算的现象在很多国家普遍存在。按照《经济学人》的统计数据,美国疫情死亡人数少算了大约30%。卡尔霍恩说,但是中国的情况太极端了,“这背后一定有某种推动因素”。
卡尔霍恩的估计数字和大纪元从国内民众提供的信息、获得的多分内部文件,以及一些中国疫情的研究数据所描述的情况相符,都表明国内的死亡人数远远高于官方报导的数字。
武汉疫情爆发的最初几个月,该市一些火葬场员工告诉大纪元,他们没日没夜地焚化尸体。3月,成千上万个骨灰盒运到当地一家火葬场,而当时官方报导的死亡数字只有2,000。一个月后,官方报导的死亡数字上调了50%,称是弥补行政统计上的误差。
《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)去年3月发表的一份研究说,截至2020年4月,武汉968,800人有病毒抗体。这意味着这些人感染过病毒有了免疫力。
数据的偏差不仅发生在武汉。另一份来自山东卫生机构的内部文件显示,2020年2月的两周之内,近2,000人检测为病毒阳性,而同期,官方报导的染疫人数只有755例。
泄露的内部文件表明中共政府仍然继续把疫情控制视为一项政治任务。
陕西省省会西安近期爆发了疫情。大纪元近期获得的内部文件显示,陕西省一位高层官员下令用“最强硬措施”阻止疫情扩散。文件说,因为北京冬奥会举办在即,疫情的扩散会“引发系统风险”,“给国家形象抹黑”。

大纪元 2022-01-17 Eva Fu和David Zhang
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